Increase in Tiger Numbers of India
The latest numbers of wild tigers in India has just been announced , and as usual there are views and counter views . The good news is that there is an increase compared to the last census.This is an attempt to try and make some sense of the debate. I compiling a series of links in one place so that you can go through all of them to try and make some sense of the whole thing and come to an informed decision.
The first link announcing the upcoming good news.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/tiger-census-brings-10-cheer/767588/
A critique of the entire census process.
http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/nation/how-they-count-our-tigers
A link to an excellent discussion by various experts on the entire exercise.(there is a 30 sec. commercial followed by the actual programme - rather long but a must watch )
http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/tiger-census-295-tigers-added-population-estimated-at-1706/194831
Dr.Ullas Karanth's response.
RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL TIGER ESTIMATION REPORT
The result of the national tiger estimation exercise conducted over
the past couple of years has been released on 28-3-2011. It reports
an increase in adult tiger numbers to 1636 (170......6 including
Sunderbans), up from the previous estimate of 1411 tigers in 2007.
This is an increase of 16% compounded over 4 years, suggesting that
the previous decline of tigers has been reversed. However, since full
details are not yet available as to how these tiger numbers have been
arrived at, it is not possible to give an expert opinion about the new
numbers. However, since various threats faced by tigers do not appear
to have diminished in last four years, it is difficult to explain the
claimed reversal of the decline of tigers.
Moreover, going beyond such country wide estimates, a more important
issue needs to be addressed: Most of India’s reproducing tiger
populations are now concentrated in 10% of all tiger habitat that
holds 90% of all our tigers. These 40 or so ‘source populations’ are
under grave threat and need to be ecologically monitored annually
using intensive camera trapping (as prescribed in the proposed Phase 4
of the national estimation, which is yet to even begin). Monitoring of
tracks by Forest Guards is not a substitute for such reliable
monitoring using camera traps or DNA sampling as has already been
proven earlier in places where tigers vanished even as guards did
similar patrol-based monitoring. To me the most serious flaw in the
present government effort is the basic futility of trying to generate
all-India level tiger counts once in 4 years, even while ignoring
critical task of intensively monitoring key source populations year
after year.The time has now come to switch from these once in five year national
estimation (termed Phases 1 to 3) and focus intensive camera trap or
DNA monitoring of tiger source populations so that we can track the
...fate of individual tige...rs, and estimate survival and recruitment rates
to gauge how each of these populations is faring. If we do not shift
to such focused, intensive monitoring approaches, we are at serious
risk of losing more and more key populations even while we celebrate
supposed ‘increases’ from these national counts (it is well known that
half the tiger reserves lost most of their tigers in the past decades
despite these national counts!).
On a more technical note, the full process of how these tiger numbers
are generated for individual tiger populations and landscapes, has not
been made public in a scientifically acceptable manner. Only one
scientific paper, which explains only a part of this protocol, has
been published in 2011, based on data from the last round of
estimation in 2007. While this is not the place for a technical
discussion, I see serious deficiencies in the methodology which has
been published.
For several years Centre for Wildlife Studies has monitored tigers
rigorously in Karnataka State over an area that holds about 15% of the
country’s tigers. We camera trap a 3000 sq km area, every year,
photographing more than 100 tigers in a population of about 250. On
the basis of these data we believe that the tiger population in
Karnataka is holding out, and even increasing in some areas like
Bhadra and Kudremukh because of good work by government and NGOs. We
believe that similar intensive monitoring of all key source
populations can be easily done to generate similarly useful results
across the country. This would not cost more than what the present
‘once in four year’ national estimation costs. However, to achieve
such progress, government must give up its present monopoly over tiger
monitoring and bring in outside expertise and resources in order to
ensure greater reliability, transparency and credibility in monitoring
the fate of our national animal. I hope this long delayed Phase 4 of
tiger counting will happen before it is too late.
K. ULLAS KARANTH
DIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR WILDLIFE STUDIES
And a link to a unique study in the Buxa Tiger Reserve.NTCA acknowledges Aaranyak's genetic work on Buxa tigers - the way forward.
http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/STRIPES-Sep-Oct-2010.pdf
The first link announcing the upcoming good news.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/tiger-census-brings-10-cheer/767588/
A critique of the entire census process.
http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/nation/how-they-count-our-tigers
A link to an excellent discussion by various experts on the entire exercise.(there is a 30 sec. commercial followed by the actual programme - rather long but a must watch )
http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/tiger-census-295-tigers-added-population-estimated-at-1706/194831
Dr.Ullas Karanth's response.
RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL TIGER ESTIMATION REPORT
The result of the national tiger estimation exercise conducted over
the past couple of years has been released on 28-3-2011. It reports
an increase in adult tiger numbers to 1636 (170......6 including
Sunderbans), up from the previous estimate of 1411 tigers in 2007.
This is an increase of 16% compounded over 4 years, suggesting that
the previous decline of tigers has been reversed. However, since full
details are not yet available as to how these tiger numbers have been
arrived at, it is not possible to give an expert opinion about the new
numbers. However, since various threats faced by tigers do not appear
to have diminished in last four years, it is difficult to explain the
claimed reversal of the decline of tigers.
Moreover, going beyond such country wide estimates, a more important
issue needs to be addressed: Most of India’s reproducing tiger
populations are now concentrated in 10% of all tiger habitat that
holds 90% of all our tigers. These 40 or so ‘source populations’ are
under grave threat and need to be ecologically monitored annually
using intensive camera trapping (as prescribed in the proposed Phase 4
of the national estimation, which is yet to even begin). Monitoring of
tracks by Forest Guards is not a substitute for such reliable
monitoring using camera traps or DNA sampling as has already been
proven earlier in places where tigers vanished even as guards did
similar patrol-based monitoring. To me the most serious flaw in the
present government effort is the basic futility of trying to generate
all-India level tiger counts once in 4 years, even while ignoring
critical task of intensively monitoring key source populations year
after year.The time has now come to switch from these once in five year national
estimation (termed Phases 1 to 3) and focus intensive camera trap or
DNA monitoring of tiger source populations so that we can track the
...fate of individual tige...rs, and estimate survival and recruitment rates
to gauge how each of these populations is faring. If we do not shift
to such focused, intensive monitoring approaches, we are at serious
risk of losing more and more key populations even while we celebrate
supposed ‘increases’ from these national counts (it is well known that
half the tiger reserves lost most of their tigers in the past decades
despite these national counts!).
On a more technical note, the full process of how these tiger numbers
are generated for individual tiger populations and landscapes, has not
been made public in a scientifically acceptable manner. Only one
scientific paper, which explains only a part of this protocol, has
been published in 2011, based on data from the last round of
estimation in 2007. While this is not the place for a technical
discussion, I see serious deficiencies in the methodology which has
been published.
For several years Centre for Wildlife Studies has monitored tigers
rigorously in Karnataka State over an area that holds about 15% of the
country’s tigers. We camera trap a 3000 sq km area, every year,
photographing more than 100 tigers in a population of about 250. On
the basis of these data we believe that the tiger population in
Karnataka is holding out, and even increasing in some areas like
Bhadra and Kudremukh because of good work by government and NGOs. We
believe that similar intensive monitoring of all key source
populations can be easily done to generate similarly useful results
across the country. This would not cost more than what the present
‘once in four year’ national estimation costs. However, to achieve
such progress, government must give up its present monopoly over tiger
monitoring and bring in outside expertise and resources in order to
ensure greater reliability, transparency and credibility in monitoring
the fate of our national animal. I hope this long delayed Phase 4 of
tiger counting will happen before it is too late.
K. ULLAS KARANTH
DIRECTOR, CENTRE FOR WILDLIFE STUDIES
And a link to a unique study in the Buxa Tiger Reserve.NTCA acknowledges Aaranyak's genetic work on Buxa tigers - the way forward.
http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/STRIPES-Sep-Oct-2010.pdf
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